Electoral reform is in the agenda of Hong Kong’s Legislative
Assembly and is hotly debated in public sphere. Democratic assertions of Hong Kong have attracted world attention
lately by the sustained occupy movement spearheaded by the youth of Hong Kong.
It showcased the spirit and aspirations of a major section of the Hong Kong
people and stood ground against the indomitable Chinese political heads. The
movement made an indelible signature in the political and social map of Hong
Kong.
The eye of the storm is the election of the Chief Executive of Hong
Kong for the impending 2017 term. Article 45 of the Basic law of Hong Kong Hong Kong states
that [t]he Chief Executive of the Hong
Kong Special Administrative Region shall be selected by election or through
consultations held locally and be appointed by the Central People's Government.
The method for selecting the Chief Executive shall
be specified in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and
orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by
universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating
committee in accordance with democratic procedures. Specific method of
execution of election is provided in Annexure I. Complete understanding of
election process include annexures incorporating decisions of the National
People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC). The language of Article 45 has
given enough play for the Central People’s Government to assert its intentions.
“Selected by election or through consultations held
locally”- “The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by
universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating
committee” – Though there is no mandate so to say that Chief Executive is to be
selected by election, NPCSC has
decided that it shall be by universal suffrage. So far so good, but as it is
often said, the devil is in the details, every eligible voter will have one
vote but the candidates who shall be qualified to contest will be pre-screened
by a nomination committee. Incidentally, the nomination committee of 1200
members is carefully packed with pro China sympathizers that the outcome of
election, whether is it is A or B will be the choice of China and may not be of
the people of Hong Kong.
The unrest was
on this plan of the Central People’s Government to instill a political process
similar to the National People’s Congress. The nomination Committee that was
thought to be an interim arrangement, which progressively will give way to a
wider world understanding of democracy and universal suffrage, is now here to
stay. The reform proposals which were expected to bring the region closer to
common understanding of democracy, on the other hand, is creating its own
definitions. This realization, coupled with economic, cultural and sociological
reasons that a major portion of Hong Kong sought for political self-determination
in choosing their political head.
The present
reform plan introduced by the Chief Secretary is fundamentally no different but
with a new feature of a run off stage in the nomination committee. A candidate seeking
to contest should get at least 120 endorsement of the members of the nomination
committee, the endorsement may go up to a maximum of 240. Mathematically, this
will limit the number of candidate between 5 to 10. There will be a run off
election at this stage by secret ballot wherein the members of the nomination
committee shall choose minimum two candidates who shall contest for the post of
Chief Executive. They can vote for as many numbers of candidates as they wish
additionally. It is only those candidates who get more than 50% of votes of the
nomination committee who can contest the public election.
The mood of the
public is difficult to gauge with demonstrations pro-democracy and pro-Beijing
being staged alternatively in the city. One of the rally by the Beijing loyalist
by conservative numbering was reported to be attended by 80000 people, but on
the sidelines are stories that participants were paid, staffs of industrials
houses were mandated to participate etc. The opinion polls by Joint - University Survey on 2017 Chief Executive Election Proposal show a statistics of 43.5% support for the proposal, 36.8% dissatisfied class and 19.7% undecided group in the period between 20-24/05/2015.
The future of
the proposal to be passed in the Council is grim unless the treasury bench gets
the support of few from the pro democracy camp. The proposal needs two third
votes to get passed. The composition of 70 members Legislative Council with 27
pro-democrats gives them a possibility of veto. A veto foreseeably will put the
reform back to square one to the tune that the 2017 election will be conducted
in the 2012 format. This will continue till Beijing loyalists get a clear
majority in the Legislative Council to pass the reform package. A pro-democrat
majority in Legislative Council in coming local body election contested on the
platform of Electoral and democratic reform will be the defining moment of the
popular sentiments. Nevertheless, the sectoral representation pattern of Hong
Kong and the political arrangement at the hand over in 1997 will limit its
self-determination to a significant extent.